It kills me when I go and preview a property that has just come on the market and I know that it is a great buy yet I do not have a client at the moment who is actively searching for that particular house. Keep an eye out on this blog for details on properties that I see (not that I have listed) that I think would be a great buy/investment for someone.

Here is today’s find: 3 bedroom, finished basement, ensuite, garage, freehold, main floor family room with gas fireplace, Kanata, walk to shops and buses (as if that is any good!), and under $240,000.

If you have anyone…………let them know asap because it will NOT last. I will make the arrangements to go and show it to them.

I received the following from Nancy MacCallum, a Mortgage Planner with Mortgage Architects here in Ottawa:

Economic pundits say the worst may be over.

·         TSX +51.40pts (Reuters) for a 5th straight session, supported by rising energy shares, which climbed along with oil prices, and by a rally in financials.

·         DOW -81.80pts stocks fell on all 3 main indices as investors took some profits following four days of positive gains.

·         Dollar +1.7c to $.84.03US.

·          Oil +$2.47to $48.81US per barrel. helped up by worries over the effects of Israel’s attacks on Gaza and a market dispute that has resulted in a cut to Russia’s natural gas output to the Ukraine has also benefited oil

·         Gold -$21. to $857.80US per ounce

           www.bankofcanada.ca/en/rates/bond-look.html  Canadian bond prices

Overall sentiment was lifted by a meeting involving Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney with country’s top bank executives on Monday to urge the banks loosen up lending to try to get the economy moving. Flaherty may comment on the talks on Tuesday.

Economic pundits say the worst may be over Alia McMullen, Financial Post

Canada has begun 2009 with a financial crisis, a global economic slowdown, political unease at home and the emergence of a new ideology in the United States. Amid the uncertainty, the National Post and Canadian Club’s 32nd Annual Outlook, presented by Scotiabank, Monday brought together an economist and three Financial Post columnists to present their thoughts on what the year might hold. None expects 2009 to be easy, and while there is a high risk of more market shocks to come, there is an equally good chance that the worst is over.

Warren Jestin

The chief economist at Scotiabank says 2009 will be a “challenging year; one that suggests that prudent management, cautious spending is the order of the day.” It will also be a year marked by global synchronicity. Global growth will decline to 1%-1.5% as consumers feel the fallout of declining stock markets, slowing economies, and falling real estate values. In Canada, the economy won’t begin to recover for another six months, and even then the process will be slow. There remains a high risk another unforeseen event, such as the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, will shock the markets. He says interest rates will fall further and the Canadian dollar will likely stay between about US80-85 cents. And while food prices may rise, overall price pressures will remain deflationary.

Terrence Corcoran

The editor of the Financial Post says the stock market is likely sitting at the bottom of a trough and will recover in the next 12 months. However, government interference in the financial markets and economy through regulations and stimulus packages could block a recovery. “Until governments settle down … the markets will remain dangerous and uncertain,” he says. He questions whether investors will buy shares in financial and automotive companies that will be forced to comply with strict rules as conditions to receive government assistance. And while he says he does not really believe in astrology, it is interesting to note that 2009 is the Chinese year of the Ox. Five of the last seven Ox years have produced a bull stock market run. The 2008 year of the rat predicted recession and turmoil.

John Ivison

The political correspondent at the National Post expects sanity will return to the Hill in 2009 after the coalition shakeup at the end of last year resulted in a prorogued parliament. “It shocks me to say this, but 2009 might actually bring out the best in our politicians,” he says. The Stephen Harper minority conservative government is also likely to retain power, with the Liberals, under the new leadership of Michael Ignatieff, expected to support the federal budget. He says there eventually will be an election between Mr. Harper and Mr. Ignatieff, but the later needs time to build his public profile. In the meantime, the Harper government will begin to prepare Canada for growing labour shortages as the Baby Boomer generation retires by pumping money into training and retraining.

Diane Francis

The Financial Post editor-at-large says 2009 will certainly not be worse than 2008, but the global economy has sunk into a state that is somewhat equivalent to a depression. However, this depression will differ from that of the past, leaving behind the long food lines, and bracing an era of historic international co-operation. She expects those that abused the financial system to be held accountable amid the birth of a new order of global market oversight organizations. “Like the last Great Depression, we are going to be in for some sweeping reforms,” she says. The inauguration of Barack Obama on Jan. 20 and the switch to a stimulatory economic policy of Obamanomics could also present challenges for Canada. “He will cut taxes, which will force us to cut taxes,” she says.

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Canadian homebuilders deny market headed for meltdown

No parallels with U.S. Eric Beauchesne, Canwest News Service

OTTAWA – The Canadian housing market is cooling but is not facing a U.S. style meltdown, builders here say.

“A few commentators have drawn a parallel between the Canadian housing situation and the extreme difficulties in the housing market in the United States,” the Canadian Homebuilders say in a report Monday that dismisses such comparisons.

“There is absolutely no merit in drawing such a parallel,” it said in a report that contends the pace of housing construction in Canada is merely returning to a level that is consistent with underlying housing requirements following the boom of recent years.

“The housing situation in Canada is totally different from that of the U.S.,” it said. “There will be some price moderation in some markets, but there is nothing to suggest that housing markets in Canada are vulnerable to the oversupplies and plunging prices that characterize many markets in the U.S.

“We did not experience the same housing boom conditions that occurred in the U.S., and there is no reason to expect that we are in for the serious pain they are currently suffering,” it said.

The moderation of house prices will improve affordability and create opportunities for first-time home buyers, it said. Meanwhile, existing homeowners have little to fear.

“For those selling a home and buying another, the moderation of housing prices should be relative – there should be no significant gain or loss from the easing of house prices,” it said.

“For those who have owned a home for some period, their equity will be substantial, given the rising prices of the past few years,” it said. “For those who purchased their home recently, there should be few worries about a modest temporary reduction in value.”

To support its argument that the Canadian housing market is not going the way of the U.S. market, it cited a variety of differences:

• Unlike in the U.S., underwriting standards for qualifying mortgage borrowers in Canada have been maintained at prudent levels resulting in mortgage borrowers here being much more creditworthy;

• Canadian mortgage lenders never offered low initial ‘teaser’ rate mortgages that led to most of the difficulties for mortgage borrowers in the U.S.;

• Most mortgages in Canada are held by their original lender, not packaged and sold to third parties as is typical in the U.S., and consequently, Canadian mortgage lenders have a vested interest in ensuring that their mortgage borrowers are creditworthy and not likely to default;

• Only 0.3% of Canadian mortgages are in arrears versus 4.5% in the U.S. and what even before the start of the U.S. housing meltdown two years ago was 2%;

• Canadians tend to pay down their mortgage faster than in the U.S. where mortgage interest is deductible from taxes, which encourages U.S. homeowners to take equity out of their homes to finance other spending, a difference that is reflected in the fact that in Canada mortgage debt accounts for just over 30% of the value of homes, compared with 55% in the U.S.

In Canada, home prices are down 9.8% from a year earlier, compared with an 18% drop in the U.S. from what were already deeply depressed prices a year ago, the latest real estate industry figures show.

Most analysts here agree that Canada should avoid a U.S. style housing market meltdown.

Michael Gregory, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets, said recently that “we won’t even come close” to what is happening in the U.S. thanks to stronger employment and income growth here as well as banking system that “continues to make mortgages” available to Canadian consumers.

But he cautioned that if unemployment rises in Canada, there will be a larger fallout for the domestic housing market.

“Anyway you slice it, if you don’t have a job, you can’t get a mortgage and you can’t buy a house,” Mr. Gregory said.

Nancy MacCallum, AMP

Mortgage Planner

Mortgage Architects

FSCO Agent # M08003391 -Brokerage 10287

150 Isabella St.Suite 110

Ottawa,ON K1S 1P7

tel:613-276-6912

Okay…..so I lie about my weight. (I still remember the first time that I bought bindings for downhill skis & the salesman told me that I could not lie. I was devastated!!!)

I get so upset when I see people reading statistical numbers & taking them at face value without analyzing them. They are not untruths BUT without assessing how the numbers came about and how easily they can be influenced, they might as well be falsehoods.

One of my favourites was the average sale price of condos on mls in the downtown core 2 years ago. Reports in the papers quoted that prices had sky-rocketed an amazing 160% or some comparable ridiculous number. When one pulled the details on what properties had sold in the area the answer was clear. Recently-introduced luxury condos were now being resold and the new price tag for that area was totally skewing the stats.

Today’s Canwest News Services report on the doom and gloom that the papers so love to write about (at least now they are delegated to the less than prime spots in the paper with the bus strike still grabbing the headlines), continues the gleeful quoting of gloomy real estate numbers without any analysis. Today’s paper reports that the average Canadian home price has dropped just less than 10% in the past year.

The questions that pop into my mind are:

• what are the local stats?
• do those numbers reflect the actual drop in value OR do they reflect the fact that the houses that are being sold are not the high-end homes but rather entry-level and 2nd family homes, which would again skew the averages?
• are there new developments in an area (i.e new condo developments) that are selling a lot of properties in a lower price range en mass that will affect the averages?

Without looking at the whole picture do NOT be cast into that group of individuals that fear that the sky is falling. The sky is NOT. At least here in Ottawa at this point in time. 

I was brave and opened the envelope. Unlike the abject fear that ensued when the notice regarding my investments arrived, I knew that I could deal with the new property assessment. Part of me wanted to see the assessment of my home go up (what real estate sales representative in their right mind would want to see that their property was NOT increasing in value), even though I knew that the consequences of this would hit my pocketbook). The assessment did go up, but not as high as as the norm…….so I am safe!

Here are comments from  the Ottawa Real Estate Board on how to handle an assessment that you feel is unfair:

Property owners should be receiving their 2009 property tax assessments in the mail this week from the Municipal Property Assessment Corporation (MPAC). Under the revised system, a new assessment will be conducted every 4 years, with any increase phased in over that 4-year period. MPAC says that because property values have increased by about 20 per cent province-wide since 2005, Ontario property owners can expect an average increase of 5 per cent on their 2009 property assessment and the same in the subsequent 3 years.An increase in a property’s assessment will not necessarily mean an increase in that homeowner’s property taxes. If the assessed value of the home has increased by the same percentage as the average in their municipality, there might not be an increase in the property taxes paid. If the value of a property has decreased, the entire decrease will be implemented immediately. If an owner feels that his or her assessment is inaccurate, a brochure sent out with all assessment notices includes information about how to report inaccuracies and file a complaint or challenge.

With today’s announcement that there will be a new $80M DND high-tech headquarters built in Ottawa my first thoughts go to how the city will benefit AND which end of town will benefit the most. With Leitrim the suspected winner, the south-east end is the obvious winner. Combine that with the RCMP relocation to the old JDS campus near Barrhaven, and it does not take a lot of analysis to figure out that the Barrhaven, Riverside South, Manotick, Findlay Creek, Blackburn Hamlet, Orleans, Hunt Club area in general, Pineglen, Country Place will all benefit from the new build.

Quaint villages like Osgoode, Greeley & Metcalfe will encounter change and we all know how well change is accepted! Good areas for investment though.

This is great news for the local economy. A good way to start the rainy week off.

It is kind of an ugly commercial corner, so when I read that a new Marriott Hotel has been approved for the Walkley Rd. near Bank St. area it was a pleasant surprise.  Yesterday’s Ottawa Citizen bore a fairly significant article on how local community groups were involved in the process, having met 5 times and giving an overwhelming vote of approval to the hotel. Fountains and beautiful grounds will help improve the not-so-beautiful- now area of town that is conveniently located near the airport and public transit as well as commercial locations.

Today’s Citizen, in an article buried on Pg 7 of the City Section, lauds the approval of the Hotel by Ottawa City Hall. It also makes mention of the fact that some area residents would increase property values and increase taxes, increase traffic and pollution levels.

Let’s see how it all goes. Change once again rears its ugly head.

I love it when a positive comes from something so negative….such as the mistakes made in the Carp River development studies. The public’s access to information was very limited.

The city’s reaction has been a definite +. You can now log on to the City of Ottawa website, punch in “development application search” and get any and all information for all current development applications and supporting studies for everything from zoning changes that allow taller buildings to site-plan applications that show exactly how a building project will be laid out.  http://app01.ottawa.ca/postingplans/home.jsf?lang=en

When a developer makes application for development of any type they must also file an electronic application too.  Note though that online information is only available for development applications submitted on or after February 1, 2008, so you must still contact the City of Ottawa directly for ones made prior to that 613-580-2424.

Qudos to the City of Ottawa for this response.

Don’t you love it when you see your name on a list….particularly when it is at the top!!According to a study conducted by the magazine MoneySense, the following are ranked as Canada’s top cities to live in in Canada:

1. Ottawa
2. Victoria
3. Fredericton
4. Kingston
5. Levis, Quebec
6. Moncton, N.B
7. Winnipeg
8. Burlington, ON
9. Halifax
10. Vancouver

(by the way…….I have lived in three of these cities- Fredericton, Moncton & now Ottawa…so perhaps I bring good luck!)

For the complete list: http://list.canadianbusiness.com/rankings/bestplacestolive/2008/prosperity/Default.aspx?sp2=1&d1=a&sc1=6&sub=n1&df=bestcities

“….Ottawa benefits from a major employee that’s never going to go out of business: the federal government.  Household income is quite high, housing is very affordable, crime is low, lots of doctors compared to the rest of the country, low unemployment rate and so on”.

“People earning the average income would need 2.93 times their annual salaries to cover the sticker prices of homes in the nation’s capitol while Toronto buyers would need 4.94 times the average annual income.”

For a list of prices of housing throughout Canada & how long it would take you to save to buy one: http://list.canadianbusiness.com/rankings/bestplacestolive/2008/housing/Default.aspx?sub=n2&df=bestcities&sc1=3&d1=a&sp2=1&eh=ch 

For the full article and methodology go to http://list.canadianbusiness.com/rankings/bestplacestolive/2008/Default.aspx?sp2=1&d1=a&sc1=6

Just be glad if you are not a first-time home buyer out on the streets now! It is tough not having the equity built up in an existing home to use to obtain financing. And it is only going to get tougher as prices of houses go up (& they ARE going to be going up).

I get asked the question a lot as to “whether I should wait”.To get the answer one only has to do the math and look at the rate at which house prices are going up in the particular area that you are looking at. Is some miracle going to offset the increase in prices?

Read this Saturday’s Ottawa Citizen article in which I was interviewed about breaking into the market. http://www.canada.com/ottawacitizen/news/homes/story.html?id=7620929f-313b-4ddc-9bad-96e43fbfd120